【双语阅读】溢价疑云.

　　【Economist】

　　China&aposs financial markets

　　Premium puzzle

　　Enthusiasm for Chinese companies abroad but not at home

　　OF THE many oddities surrounding Chinese stockmarkets, the most glaring has long been the premium mainland investors pay for shares listed domestically over what those same shares trade for in Hong Kong. Now the puzzle is why the premium has disappeared (see chart).

　　The usual explanation for the existence of the premium ran as follows. A closed capital account and a tightly run financial system lt Chinese investors with only three places to put their money: property, with its high transaction costs and manic price moves; bank deposits, offering diminutive interest; or shares, with price moves as big as property but lower dealing costs. That paucity of choices drove shares higher than in places with more options.

　　What, then, has changed? The last time the price of shares simultaneously trading in the mainland and Hong Kong came close to converging was in 2006 when foreign fund managers were flooding into Hong Kong, intoxicated by potential gains from underpriced bank offerings. This time is different. Prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen by 22% and 15% respectively this year, making the mainland one of the

　　world’s worst-performing markets. In Hong Kong prices of shares in the same companies have fallen far less. Outsiders appear more willing to believe China’s growth story than the Chinese.

　　The decline on mainland markets may be because investors are tapped out. Of the $19 billion raised recently by Agricultural Bank of China, more than 60% came from other Chinese state-owned entities. Every big bank is lining up for large capital injections and there have been many other share issues as well. Chinese companies raised $54 billion in equity in the first half of this year (bore the AgBank listing) and another $80 billion in debt, according to Dealogic. That’s a lot, even for China.

　　Another possibility regards moves to liberalise the yuan. In a series of decisions—including an announcement on July 19th on various yuan-denominated products banks will be able to trade in Hong Kong—small holes are being punched in the wall separating China’s currency and the outside world. Perhaps the gap between shares in Hong Kong and those in the mainland is shrinking because the barriers between the two are falling.

　　These are just theories, however. Investment bankers are scrambling to work out what is happening to China’s markets even as they prepare more companies for flotation. Despite falling prices, the appetite to list remains keen. The pipeline of prospective deals at most of the big banks consists overwhelmingly of Chinese companies, hoping to place their shares at home or in the hands of China-obsessed foreign buyers. Non-Chinese companies are also clamouring to list in Shanghai, a process that could begin early next year. Perhaps the premium has disappeared because foreigners now have fewer appealing choices, too.

　　【Chinese Translation 中文翻译对照】

　　“经济学人”杂志

　　中国资本市场

　　溢价疑云

　　海外对中国公司的股票热情高涨，国内则不然

　　在怪事连连的中国股市，长久以来最引人注目的莫过于A股对H股的溢价——即同样一支上市股票，在大陆持有要比在香港的股价高。但是现在人们的疑问变成了为什么原来的 溢价已经消失了。(见图表)

　　通常对A股溢价有如下解释： 封闭的资本市场和严格监管的金融系统让中国投资人仅有三个领域可供选择。第一是房地产市场，但是房产有不菲的交易费用和近乎疯狂的价格波动。其次是存入银行，而存款利率日渐下跌; 第三是股市，虽然股价的波动和房价一样巨大，但是交易费用大为降低。上述原因让大陆股价高过其他有较多投资选择的地区。

　　那么，究竟是什么变动使得溢价消失了呢?最近一次在A股和H股同步交易的股票价格接近是在2006年。那是因为银行新股估值过低，潜在收益吸引海外基金经理蜂拥进入香港市场。这次的情况则不同。今年A股的股市表现是全球最糟糕的之一，沪深两市的股价已经分别下跌了22% 和15%。但是同一家公司在香港的股价下跌的远没有这么多。看起来比起国内，海外对中国的经济增长更有信心。

　　大陆A股的熊市有可能是因为投资者的资金已经见肘。最近中国农业银行募集的190亿美元的资金中，有60%是来自其他国有企业。每一家巨无霸银行都排队等着注入资金，而且还有许多其他公司的筹资计划。根据的dealogic的数据，今年上半年，在农行上市之前，中国公司已经在股市募集了总值高达540亿美元的资金，另外发行了总值800亿美元的债券。这数目无疑是太大了，甚至对中国来说也是如此。

　　另一种可能指向人民币的改革。7月19日央行宣布银行可以在香港销售人民币产品。(见注1)一系列的决定表明原本阻隔人民币和外界联系的政策已经有所松动。也许大陆对香港同一支股票的溢价正在缩小是因为两者的障碍正在消失。

　　以上也只是停留在理论层面而已。众多投行正在竭尽全力以求探明中国资本市场究竟发生了什么， 虽然他们正在着手为更多公司筹资。股价低迷，但是公司谋求上市的热情不减。在大投行手中希望在未来上市交易绝大部分来自中国。他们希望在国内上市或者由痴迷中国市场的国外买家持有。外资企业也发出了希望在上海上市的声音。这一进程可能在明年早些时候成为现实。也许，大陆股票的溢价消失是因为当下连外国投资人的选择也变少了。

　　注：1央行与香港金管局7月19日签订清算协议 据香港媒体引述不具名消息人士透露，中国人民银行与香港金管局敲定在7月19日签署修订《清算协议》，新协议将允许符合条件的企业开设人民币账户，让银行、证券及基金公司可开发及销售人民币产品。

　　【Economist】

　　China&aposs financial markets

　　Premium puzzle

　　Enthusiasm for Chinese companies abroad but not at home

　　OF THE many oddities surrounding Chinese stockmarkets, the most glaring has long been the premium mainland investors pay for shares listed domestically over what those same shares trade for in Hong Kong. Now the puzzle is why the premium has disappeared (see chart).

　　The usual explanation for the existence of the premium ran as follows. A closed capital account and a tightly run financial system lt Chinese investors with only three places to put their money: property, with its high transaction costs and manic price moves; bank deposits, offering diminutive interest; or shares, with price moves as big as property but lower dealing costs. That paucity of choices drove shares higher than in places with more options.

　　What, then, has changed? The last time the price of shares simultaneously trading in the mainland and Hong Kong came close to converging was in 2006 when foreign fund managers were flooding into Hong Kong, intoxicated by potential gains from underpriced bank offerings. This time is different. Prices in Shanghai and Shenzhen have fallen by 22% and 15% respectively this year, making the mainland one of the

　　world’s worst-performing markets. In Hong Kong prices of shares in the same companies have fallen far less. Outsiders appear more willing to believe China’s growth story than the Chinese.

　　The decline on mainland markets may be because investors are tapped out. Of the $19 billion raised recently by Agricultural Bank of China, more than 60% came from other Chinese state-owned entities. Every big bank is lining up for large capital injections and there have been many other share issues as well. Chinese companies raised $54 billion in equity in the first half of this year (bore the AgBank listing) and another $80 billion in debt, according to Dealogic. That’s a lot, even for China.

　　Another possibility regards moves to liberalise the yuan. In a series of decisions—including an announcement on July 19th on various yuan-denominated products banks will be able to trade in Hong Kong—small holes are being punched in the wall separating China’s currency and the outside world. Perhaps the gap between shares in Hong Kong and those in the mainland is shrinking because the barriers between the two are falling.

　　These are just theories, however. Investment bankers are scrambling to work out what is happening to China’s markets even as they prepare more companies for flotation. Despite falling prices, the appetite to list remains keen. The pipeline of prospective deals at most of the big banks consists overwhelmingly of Chinese companies, hoping to place their shares at home or in the hands of China-obsessed foreign buyers. Non-Chinese companies are also clamouring to list in Shanghai, a process that could begin early next year. Perhaps the premium has disappeared because foreigners now have fewer appealing choices, too.

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