【双语阅读】中国空气污染是由什么造成的?.

　　在中国这个世界最大的汽车市场，北京和其他中国城市的空气污染突然加剧，令人们对汽车尾气排放的担忧变得突出，但分析师说，当前中国空气污染祸患的重点是卡车和较为老旧的汽车，而不是新的乘用车。

　　In China, Older Cars Clog the Air

　　A spike in air pollution in Beijing and other Chinese cities has brought concern over auto fumes to the fore in the world&aposs largest car market, but analysts say trucks and older cars─rather than new passenger vehicles -- lie at the heart of China&aposs current pollution woes.

　　China overtook the U.S. as the biggest auto market by number of new vehicles sold in 2009. Last year, Chinese customers bought 19.3 million vehicles, a figure the semiofficial China Association of Auto Manufacturers forecasts will grow a further 7% this year.

　　A fourth day of severe pollution across large parts of China has put scrutiny on industries that contribute to China&aposs pollution problems, including auto makers, power companies, steel makers and other firms.

　　China has fewer cars on the road than the U.S. -- 92.7 million compared with about 245 million. But according to China&aposs Ministry of Environmental Protection, only 5.7% of China&aposs vehicles meet the country&aposs highest national Grade IV standards that limit toxic emissions from vehicles including greenhouse gas and tiny particulate matter known as PM2.5.

　　The majority meet relatively low emission standards. The 10% of vehicles that don&apost meet the minimal Grade I emission standard account for 40% of the total emissions of major pollutants, the ministry said.

　　&aposMitigation of the problem lies much more in getting rid of old vehicles and improving traffic flow,&apos said Janet Lewis, an analyst at Macquarie Securities.

　　Public outcry about the recent spike in pollution could also motivate the government to re-examine its once-ambitious plans for electric vehicles, implementation of which have recently stalled.

　　Long term, the current pollution crisis could prompt a rethink of Beijing&aposs policy on electric-vehicle technology, said Bill Russo, founder and president of auto consulting firm Synergistics Ltd. and a former Chrysler executive. &aposIf pollution is becoming a very visible problem, then it could change attitudes about alternatives&apos such as clean diesel and conventional hybrid engines, he said.

　　Last year, the State Council, China&aposs cabinet, said it hopes output of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles reaches 500,000 by 2015 and 5 million by 2020.

　　However, progress has been slow on more immediate steps. For example, China has twice delayed the nationwide rollout of tighter vehicle-emissions standards amid opposition from the rining industry. Tighter emission standards have also met with resistance from truck-engine manufacturers as well as buyers of trucks. A.T. Kearney consultant Stephen Dyer estimates the additional cost for engine makers to comply with stricter rules at around 10,000 yuan (about $1,600) per engine. &aposWhile this may only represent 5% of the total cost, engine makers say it&aposs enough to significantly impact sales,&apos he said.

　　The Environment Ministry said in January 2012 that the National IV standards would be applied to diesel-engine vehicles from July 2013.

　　China has other options, such as promoting the scrapping of old vehicles.

　　Last year, the city of Beijing offered financial incentives to car owners to get rid of older cars. But the amounts involved were modest -- up to around 16,000 yuan for larger cars.

　　Lin Huaibin, manager for China vehicle-sales forecasts at research firm IHS considers such incentives &aposa start&apos toward increasing the scrappage ratio in China, which currently stands at around 3% of total registered vehicles, considerably less than the U.S. rate of around 8%. Mr. Lin said it&aposs &apospretty likely&apos that other Chinese cities will follow in the steps of Beijing.

　　The latest pollution episode also could see more Chinese cities introduce restrictions on auto purchases.

　　Last year, the southern city of Guangzhou and the southwestern city of Guiyang joined Beijing and Shanghai by putting car-ownership restrictions in place that seek to relieve traffic conditions and limit air pollution.

　　It is unclear whether such moves could specifically result in a fall in auto sales. Macquarie&aposs Ms. Lewis said she didn&apost expect any further restrictions on the purchase of new vehicles as a consequence of the recent pollution problems.

　　Beijing had about five million vehicles on the road at the end of 2011 or 260 vehicles per 1,000 people. As of the end of 2011, Guangzhou had 2.33 million vehicles on the road, meaning 180 vehicles per 1,000 people, according to a government-affiliated transportation think tank in the southern Chinese city.

　　There are more than 800 licensed vehicles for every kilometer of road in Beijing, data from the Beijing government show, compared with 306 vehicles in Hong Kong and 520 vehicles in Shanghai.

　　Globally, about one third of polluting emissions can be attributed to transportation-related sources, said Mr. Dyer of A.T. Kearney. Of this, about one-third is linked to passenger cars, one-third to commercial vehicles and the rest to other forms of transportation including airplanes and ships.

　　However, in the case of Beijing about 50% of harmful emissions are caused by transportation sources, he said.

　　【中文对照翻译】

　　中国空气污染要怪卡车和“老爷车”

　　在中国这个世界最大的汽车市场，北京和其他中国城市的空气污染突然加剧，令人们对汽车尾气排放的担忧变得突出，但分析师说，当前中国空气污染祸患的重点是卡车和较为老旧的汽车，而不是新的乘用车。

　　2009年，以新车销量计算，中国取代美国成为世界最大的汽车市场。去年中国消费者总共购买了1,930万辆车，根据半官方的中国汽车工业协会的预测，这个数字今年还将增长7%。

　　中国大片地区的重度污染情况进入第四天，造成中国污染问题的一些行业因此受到人们审视，其中包括汽车制造商、电力公司、钢厂和其他一些公司。

　　中国上路行驶的车辆共有9,270万辆，低于美国约2.45亿辆的规模。但据中国环境保护部的数据，中国仅有5.7%的车辆符合最严格的国家第四阶段机动车污染物排放标准(国IV标准)，该标准对包括温室气体和微小颗粒物PM2.5在内的废气排放做出了限制。

　　中国大多数机车都只符合相对较低的排放标准。环保部说，有10%的车辆不符合最低的国I排放标准，其排放的污染物占主要污染物总排放量的40%。

　　麦格理证券(Macquarie Securities)分析师刘易斯(Janet Lewis)说，缓和污染问题更多地在于取缔老旧车辆并改善交通拥堵状况。

　　公众对最近污染加剧的强烈抗议可能还会促使政府重新审视其曾经雄心勃勃的电动汽车发展计划，该计划的实施近来陷入停顿。

　　汽车行业咨询公司Synergistics Ltd.创始人兼总裁、曾任克莱斯勒(Chrysler)高管的拉索(Bill Russo)说，从长远看，当前的污染危机可能促使人们反思中国政府针对电动汽车技术的政策。他说，如果污染成为非常明显的问题，那它可能改变人们对替代技术的态度，比如清洁柴油和传统的混合动力发动机。

　　中国国务院去年说，希望纯电动汽车和插电式混合动力汽车的产量2015年达到50万辆，2020年达到500万辆。

　　然而更为直接的措施进展一直很缓慢。举例来说，由于遭到炼油行业的反对，中国已经两次推迟在全国范围内推出更严格的汽车排放标准。卡车发动机制造商和卡车买家也抵制更严格的排放标准。咨询公司科尔尼(A.T. Kearney)的咨询师戴加辉(Stephen Dyer)估计，发动机制造商如果要遵循更严格的标准，每台发动机的成本将增加大约人民币1万元。他说，虽然这可能只占总成本的5%，但发动机制造商认为，这足以对销售造成重大影响。

　　2012年1月环护部说，从2013年7月起柴油车将实行国IV排放标准。

　　中国还有其他选择，比如推进旧车报废。

　　去年，北京市提供资金支持以鼓励车主报废旧车。但鼓励额度并不高，报废大中型车最多能享受大约人民币1.6万元的补贴。

　　研究机构IHS中国汽车销售预测部门负责人林怀滨认为，上述刺激措施朝提高中国车辆报废率迈出了第一步。中国目前报废车辆占登记车辆总数的比例约为3%，远低于美国约8%的报废率。林怀滨说，中国其他城市很有可能会效仿北京的做法。

　　最近这起污染事件可能会令中国内地更多城市引入车辆限购措施。

　　去年，南方城市广州和西南部城市贵阳也加入北京上海的行列，这两个城市将落实车辆限购措施，以缓解交通拥堵的现状，防止空气污染进一步恶化。

　　目前还不清楚此举是否会导致汽车销量下降。麦格理证券的刘易斯说，她预计最近一系列污染问题不会导致政府进一步出台新车限购措施。

　　2011年底，北京约有500万辆汽车在路上行驶，平均每千人拥有260辆车。广州一家政府下属的交通运输方面的智库说，截至2011年底，广州有233万辆汽车在路上行驶，这意味着每千人拥有180辆车。

　　北京市政府数据显示，在北京每公里道路上拥有牌照的车辆超过800辆，香港为306辆，上海为520辆。

　　科尔尼的戴加辉说，在全球范围内，大约三分之一的污染排放可以归因为与交通相关的污染源。其中大约有三分之一是乘用车造成的，三分之一是商业车辆，剩下三分之一是包括飞机和轮船在内的其它交通工具。

　　但戴加辉说，就北京的情况而言，约50%的有害气体排放是交通污染源造成的。

　　在中国这个世界最大的汽车市场，北京和其他中国城市的空气污染突然加剧，令人们对汽车尾气排放的担忧变得突出，但分析师说，当前中国空气污染祸患的重点是卡车和较为老旧的汽车，而不是新的乘用车。

　　In China, Older Cars Clog the Air

　　A spike in air pollution in Beijing and other Chinese cities has brought concern over auto fumes to the fore in the world&aposs largest car market, but analysts say trucks and older cars─rather than new passenger vehicles -- lie at the heart of China&aposs current pollution woes.

　　China overtook the U.S. as the biggest auto market by number of new vehicles sold in 2009. Last year, Chinese customers bought 19.3 million vehicles, a figure the semiofficial China Association of Auto Manufacturers forecasts will grow a further 7% this year.

　　A fourth day of severe pollution across large parts of China has put scrutiny on industries that contribute to China&aposs pollution problems, including auto makers, power companies, steel makers and other firms.

　　China has fewer cars on the road than the U.S. -- 92.7 million compared with about 245 million. But according to China&aposs Ministry of Environmental Protection, only 5.7% of China&aposs vehicles meet the country&aposs highest national Grade IV standards that limit toxic emissions from vehicles including greenhouse gas and tiny particulate matter known as PM2.5.

　　The majority meet relatively low emission standards. The 10% of vehicles that don&apost meet the minimal Grade I emission standard account for 40% of the total emissions of major pollutants, the ministry said.

　　&aposMitigation of the problem lies much more in getting rid of old vehicles and improving traffic flow,&apos said Janet Lewis, an analyst at Macquarie Securities.

　　Public outcry about the recent spike in pollution could also motivate the government to re-examine its once-ambitious plans for electric vehicles, implementation of which have recently stalled.

　　Long term, the current pollution crisis could prompt a rethink of Beijing&aposs policy on electric-vehicle technology, said Bill Russo, founder and president of auto consulting firm Synergistics Ltd. and a former Chrysler executive. &aposIf pollution is becoming a very visible problem, then it could change attitudes about alternatives&apos such as clean diesel and conventional hybrid engines, he said.

　　Last year, the State Council, China&aposs cabinet, said it hopes output of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles reaches 500,000 by 2015 and 5 million by 2020.

　　However, progress has been slow on more immediate steps. For example, China has twice delayed the nationwide rollout of tighter vehicle-emissions standards amid opposition from the rining industry. Tighter emission standards have also met with resistance from truck-engine manufacturers as well as buyers of trucks. A.T. Kearney consultant Stephen Dyer estimates the additional cost for engine makers to comply with stricter rules at around 10,000 yuan (about $1,600) per engine. &aposWhile this may only represent 5% of the total cost, engine makers say it&aposs enough to significantly impact sales,&apos he said.

　　The Environment Ministry said in January 2012 that the National IV standards would be applied to diesel-engine vehicles from July 2013.

　　China has other options, such as promoting the scrapping of old vehicles.

　　Last year, the city of Beijing offered financial incentives to car owners to get rid of older cars. But the amounts involved were modest -- up to around 16,000 yuan for larger cars.

　　Lin Huaibin, manager for China vehicle-sales forecasts at research firm IHS considers such incentives &aposa start&apos toward increasing the scrappage ratio in China, which currently stands at around 3% of total registered vehicles, considerably less than the U.S. rate of around 8%. Mr. Lin said it&aposs &apospretty likely&apos that other Chinese cities will follow in the steps of Beijing.

　　The latest pollution episode also could see more Chinese cities introduce restrictions on auto purchases.

　　Last year, the southern city of Guangzhou and the southwestern city of Guiyang joined Beijing and Shanghai by putting car-ownership restrictions in place that seek to relieve traffic conditions and limit air pollution.

　　It is unclear whether such moves could specifically result in a fall in auto sales. Macquarie&aposs Ms. Lewis said she didn&apost expect any further restrictions on the purchase of new vehicles as a consequence of the recent pollution problems.

　　Beijing had about five million vehicles on the road at the end of 2011 or 260 vehicles per 1,000 people. As of the end of 2011, Guangzhou had 2.33 million vehicles on the road, meaning 180 vehicles per 1,000 people, according to a government-affiliated transportation think tank in the southern Chinese city.

　　There are more than 800 licensed vehicles for every kilometer of road in Beijing, data from the Beijing government show, compared with 306 vehicles in Hong Kong and 520 vehicles in Shanghai.

　　Globally, about one third of polluting emissions can be attributed to transportation-related sources, said Mr. Dyer of A.T. Kearney. Of this, about one-third is linked to passenger cars, one-third to commercial vehicles and the rest to other forms of transportation including airplanes and ships.

　　However, in the case of Beijing about 50% of harmful emissions are caused by transportation sources, he said.

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