中日如何避免战争？.

　　中日如何避免战争?

　　China and Japan are heading for a collision

　　Amid all the noise about the economic rorms launched last week by China, it was easy to overlook another important change. The Chinese government is setting up a National Security Council, co-ordinating its military, intelligence and domestic security structures. The model is said to be America’s NSC. But China’s move also parallels developments in Japan, where Shinzo Abe’s government is also setting up a National Security Council.在上周中国提出的经济改革引发的各种喧闹声中，人们很容易忽视另一个重大变革。中国政府将设立国家安全委员会，协调军事、情报和国内安全架构，其样板据称是美国的国家安全委员会(NSC)。但中国此举其实也是在效仿日本最近的做法——在日本，安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)政府也正在组建一个国家安全委员会(即日本国家安全保障会议——译者注)。

　　Under ordinary circumstances, this modernisation of military and security structures would not be cause for concern. But these are not ordinary times. For the past year, China and Japan have been engaged in dangerous military jostling, as they push their rival territorial claims to some uninhabited islands, known as the Senkaku to the Japanese and the Diaoyu to the Chinese. In one recent week, Japan scrambled fighter jets three times in response to Chinese overflights. China, meanwhile, complains that Japanese ships came provocatively close to a recent live-fire exercise carried out by its navy. With tensions high, the revamping of the two countries’ security structures takes on a more ominous tone.在寻常情况下，这种军事与安全架构的现代化改造应该不会引起什么担忧。但眼下可不是什么寻常时期。过去一年里，中日两国一直处在危险的军事对峙中，双方对一些无人居住的岛屿(日本称尖阁列岛(Senkaku)，中国称钓鱼岛及其附属岛屿)提出的彼此冲突的领土主张不断升温。最近一周，日本战斗机三次紧急升空，应对抵近这些岛屿的中方飞机。与此同时，中国抱怨称，不久前其海军举行实弹演习时，日方军舰曾强闯演习区域。在关系如此紧张之际，中日两国大规模调整各自的安全架构，更加彰显出一种不祥之兆。

　　It is hard to believe that either China or Japan actually wants a war. The bigger risk is that military posturing around the islands will lead to an accidental clash – and that the governments of both nations would then be trapped by their own nationalist rhetoric, making it very hard to climb down.很难想象中国或日本真的想发动一场战争。更大的风险在于，两国围绕争议岛屿摆出的军事姿态会引发一场意外冲突，而后两国政府均会受困于自己的民族主义论调，很难找到台阶下。

　　Both sides now routinely accuse each other of irresponsible behaviour and out-of-control nationalism. Both insist that, if pushed, they are willing to use military force to dend their claims to the uninhabited rocks that they are disputing.如今，中日两国均会时不时地谴责一下对方的不负责任行为以及失控的民族主义情绪。双方都坚称，迫不得已时愿使用武力捍卫本国对争议岛屿的领土主张。

　　In Beijing recently, I listened to a top general from the People’s Liberation Army insist that China would never make the mistakes of Japan in the 1930s by taking the path of militarism. Just weeks earlier in Tokyo, I had heard a Japanese official drawing a different conclusion from the same history: “The Chinese are making exactly the mistakes we made in the 1930s,” he asserted. “They are allowing the military to break free from civilian control. And they are challenging American power in the Pacific.”最近在北京，我听到中国人民解放军的一位高级将领坚称，中国绝不会走军国主义道路，重蹈日本上世纪30年代的覆辙。而数周之前在东京，我听到一位日本官员从同一段历史中得出了不同的结论，他断言：“中国现在犯的正是我们在上世纪30年代犯下的错误。他们听任军方挣脱文官控制。还有，他们正在太平洋挑战美国的强权。”

　　A conflict between China and Japan – the second and third-largest economies in the world – would obviously be disastrous. It could also easily become a global conflict. The US is pledged to dend Japan through the US-Japan Security Treaty. And, although the Americans say that they take no formal position on who has sovereignty over the islands, they do recognise that they are under the administrative control of Japan – which means they are covered by the security treaty.世界第二大经济体中国与第三大经济体日本发生冲突，显然将是灾难性的。中日冲突还很容易演变为一场全球冲突。依据《美日安保条约》(US-Japan Security Treaty)，美国承诺保护日本。此外，尽管美国人称美国政府在中日争议岛屿主权归属问题上不持任何立场，但他们确实承认这些岛屿是处于日本的行政管理之下——这意味着《美日安保条约》适用于这些岛屿。

　　The whole dispute is shaped by the continuing growth in the economic might of China. Current projections suggest it is likely to be the largest economy in the world by 2020 – claiming a title that has been held by America since the 1880s. And although the US military has a size and sophistication that China is not yet close to matching, Chinese military spending is growing fast – at a time when the Pentagon is retrenching. Japan has just announced a small increase in its own military budget. But the country is drowning in debt, and knows it cannot keep pace with Chinese military spending.中日之间的整个争执，受到中国经济实力持续增强的深刻影响。现有预测显示，到2020年时，中国将成为全球第一大经济体，夺走美国自19世纪80年代以来一直把持的桂冠。此外，尽管就军力规模和先进程度而言，中国还难望美国项背，但在美国五角大楼(Pentagon)收缩开支之际，中国军费开支却在迅速增长。日本刚刚宣布小幅提高军费预算。但日本债务负担沉重，知道自己无法跟上中国军费开支增长的步伐。

　　These shifts in economic and military weight have created uncertainty about the future balance of power. And uncertainty tempts powerful nations to test each other’s limits and capabilities. An extra layer of danger is added by the bitter legacy of history. In China, President Xi Jinping argues that one of the main tasks of the Communist party is to overcome the historic humiliations his country has suffered – foremost among which was invasion by Japan. But in Tokyo, the Abe government has adopted a more nationalistic and less apologetic rhetoric about the past. The dispute is deeply personal for both men.经济与军事实力的此消彼长，给未来的力量平衡带来了不确定性。在不确定性的引诱下，强国可能会试探彼此的底线和能力。历史留下来的苦涩遗产又添加了另一重危险。中国国家主席习近平主张，中共的一项主要任务就是要洗刷中国蒙受的历史屈辱——尤其是日本侵华这件事。但在日本，安倍政府对历史采取了更具民族主义倾向、更不愿道歉的立场。对这两人来说，这场争执也包含深深的个人恩怨。

　　Mr Abe’s grandfather and mentor administered Japanese-occupied Manchuria in the 1930s, at a time when President Xi’s father was part of the Chinese Communist forces, fighting the Japanese.上世纪30年代，安倍的外祖父兼导师曾参与管理日本占领下的满洲，而习近平的父亲当时是中共武装力量的一员，正在抗击日本侵略。

　　If China and Japan are to avoid a mutually destructive collision, both sides need to change course. The establishment of a crisis hotline between Tokyo and Beijing, a move resisted by China, would be very helpful. But something bigger is also needed on both sides – an acknowledgment of the legitimacy of each other’s fears and resentments.如果想避免两败俱伤的碰撞，中日两国就都需要改弦易辙。在东京和北京之间设立危机处理热线(中方抵制这一提议)会带来很大帮助。但双方还需要做一件更重要的事情，即彼此承认对方的恐惧和怨恨是合情合理的。

　　Amid all its complaints about Chinese nationalism, the Abe government has failed to address Japan’s own failings. It is not only the Chinese who are offended by Japan’s attitude to to history. Many other Asian nations are similarly appalled. At a time when Japan’s relative power is inexorably declining in Asia, the country cannot afford nationalist posturing.安倍政府大肆抱怨中国的民族主义情绪，但它却没能解决日本自身的问题。日本对待历史的态度，冒犯的可并不止是中国人。许多其他亚洲国家同样对此感到不满。日本在亚洲的相对实力正在无可挽回地下降，此时此刻，它可承受不起摆出民族主义姿态的后果。

　　But precisely because Japan is frightened by China’s rise, it is afraid to take any step that could be seen as weakness. By contrast, China can afford to be magnanimous. It is the rising power. So it should make it absolutely explicit that – whatever the disputes between the two nations – China accepts that Japan has a secure and honourable place in the emerging political order in Asia. Such a step would provide vital reassurance to the government in Tokyo – and it would also be massively in Beijing’s interests. For, as long as peace prevails, China’s rise can continue uninterrupted.然而，恰恰因为害怕中国的崛起，日本才不敢采取任何可能被视为示弱的举措。相比之下，中国可以表现得宽宏大量一点。中国是正在崛起的强国。因此，中国应当绝对明确地表明：无论两国间存在哪些争执，中国都认可日本在亚洲正在成形的政治秩序中占据一个稳固而体面的位置。此举将给日本政府吃下一颗大大的定心丸，而且这也非常符合中国自身的利益。其原因是，只要维系了和平局面，中国的崛起就能不间断地持续下去。