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中国各大银行贷款减记规模骤增
Bad loan writedowns at Chinese banks soar
China’s biggest banks more than doubled the level of bad loans they wrote off last year, in a sign that financial strains are mounting as growth in the world’s second-largest economy slows.中国各大银行去年注销的贷款规模增加一倍多,表明随着全球第二大经济体增速放缓,金融压力不断加大。
The five biggest Chinese banks, which account for more than half of all loans, wrote off Rmb59bn ($9.5bn) in debts that could not be collected, according to their 2013 results. That was up 127 per cent from 2012, and the highest since the banks were rescued from insolvency, recapitalised and publicly listed during the past decade.中国最大的五家银行占据贷款总额过半,它们的2013年年报显示,它们减记了590亿元人民币(合95亿美元)无法追回的贷款。这比2012年高出127%,也是过去10年期间这些银行经过救助脱离资不抵债、进行资本重组和上市以来最高的一年。
The sharp acceleration in write-offs is the latest indication of the turbulence now buffeting China’s financial system. The bond market suffered its first true dault in March, two high-profile shadow bank investment products were spared from collapse by last-minute bailouts this year, and a small rural lender suffered a bri bank run last week.减记规模骤增,是动荡局面影响中国金融体系的最新表现。中国债市3月份迎来首例真正违约,今年两款备受关注的影子银行投资产品最后时刻得到兑付而免于违约,而一家小型农村银行上周遭遇短暂的挤兑。
Data also point to a deeper economic downturn in the first quarter than expected, putting China on track this year for its slowest growth since 1990.数据也表明,一季度经济放缓比预期更为严重,这意味着中国将迎来1990年以来经济增速最低的一年。
The deterioration has fuelled expectations that Beijing will act soon to shore up the economy. “Increasing downward pressure on the economy should not be neglected,” Li Keqiang, China’s premier, said last week. “We have policies in store to counter economic volatility.”形势恶化促使人们预计中国政府将很快出手支撑经济。“不能忽视经济下行压力加大等困难和风险,”中国总理李克强上周表示,“(我们)为今年继续应对经济波动做好了政策储备。”
China’s banks built up strong densive walls over the past decade of their turbocharged growth that are now being tested. Since they had already set aside large reserves against possible losses, they were able to double their loan write-offs without undercutting their profitability or their capital cushions.中国的银行在过去十年的高速增长期间建立起了坚固的防御体系,现在它在经受考验。由于银行早已为可能的亏损拨备了大量资金,它们得以在不影响盈利能力或缓冲资本的情况下将减记加倍。
Profits for the five biggest banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, rose 7 to 15 per cent in 2013, slower than 2012 but still healthy. Thanks to the write-offs, the banking sector’s bad loan ratio edged up just slightly last year, from 0.95 per cent to 1 per cent.包括中国工商银行(ICBC)在内的五大银行2013年利润增长7%到15%不等,不及2012年,但仍处于健康水平。由于银行采取了减记,银行业坏账率去年仅略有上升,从0.95%增至1%。
However, the market valuation of Chinese bank shares shows that investors believe their bad loans might be as much as five times higher than officially reported.但市场对中国各银行股票的估值表明,投资者认为这些银行的不良贷款规模可能高达官方数据的5倍。
Liao Qiang, China banks analyst with rating agency Standard & Poor’s, said lenders appeared to have adequate provisions for a downturn. But he expressed concern that banks were using write-offs to keep their non-performing loan ratios artificially low.标普(Standard & Poor’s)中国银行业分析师廖强表示,银行似乎还拥有充足的拨备资金应对经济放缓。但他担心银行通过减记人为压低不良贷款率。
“Some banks fear that if the NPL ratio is undesirably high, there may be some negative publicity, and so they are more active in write-offs,” he said.他表示:“一些银行担心,如果不良贷款率超过理想范围,它们可能招致负面报道,所以它们在减记方面比较积极。”
This has been particularly the case with midsized lenders, which bore the brunt of a cash crunch last June when interbank borrowing rates spiked to double digit levels.中等规模银行尤其如此,去年6月中国遭遇“钱荒”,银行间拆借利率飙升至两位数,它们首当其冲受到影响。
Regulators have recently relaxed write-off rules to make it easier for banks to strip out bad debts, so as to free up space on their balance sheets.监管机构近期放宽了减记规则,方便银行剥离不良债务,腾出资产负债表的空间。
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