IMF下调全球经济增长预测.

　　国际货币基金组织(IMF)周二表示，低油价将不会提供足够的提振来驱散笼罩在全球经济头上的乌云。详细请看下面的双语新闻：

　　In a sign of its increasing gloom about the medium term economic outlook, the IMF cut its global economic growth forecasts by 0.3 percentage points for both 2015 and 2016, despite believing cheaper oil represents a “shot in the arm”.IMF将其对2015年和2016年全球经济增长的预测都下调了0.3个百分点，尽管它认为油价下跌是一针“强心剂”。这一迹象表明，该组织对中期经济前景日益悲观。

　　Although the fund still believes the world economy is likely to grow 3.5 per cent this year, close to the average rate over the past 30 years, it had hoped for a period of much faster growth to recoup some of the output lost in the financial and economic crisis of 2008-09.虽然IMF仍认为今年全球经济很可能会增长3.5%、接近过去30年的平均水平，但它曾指望全球经历在一段时期内出现快得多的增长，来弥补2008-09年金融和经济危机期间损失的部分经济产出。

　　Notably, it also downgraded the growth forecast for China by 0.5 percentage points next year which, if realised, would leave its economy growing more slowly than India’s. Ahead of official Chinese growth figures on Tuesday, the fund thinks the country’s economy will expand 6.8 per cent in 2015 and 6.3 per cent for 2016.尤其值得一提的是，IMF还将其对中国明年增长的预测下调了0.5个百分点。如果这一预测成真，中国明年的经济增速将低于印度。在周二中国官方的经济增长数据公布前，IMF认为中国经济将在2015年增长6.8%，在2016年增长6.3%。周二中国官方公布的数据显示，2014年中国经济增长7.4%。

　　Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director, described the global growth outlook as “too low, too brittle and too lopsided” last week as the fund was putting the final touches to its forecasts.IMF上周在对其预测数据作最后润色时，该组织总裁克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示，全球增长前景“过于缓慢、过于脆弱和过于不平衡”。

　　In December, the IMF expected lower oil prices to boost underlying global growth rates by between 0.3 and 0.8 percentage points. The cut in the overall forecasts highlights the extent to which it has become more pessimistic.去年12月，IMF曾预计油价下跌将把全球经济潜在增长速度推高0.3至0.8个百分点。此次下调整体预测数据突显了IMF态度转向悲观的程度。

　　The update to the fund’s World Economic Outlook, which revises the main forecasts from October, displays a deep concern that the downbeat mood is set to continue.IMF在《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)中修正了去年10月作出的主要预测，最新内容展示出一个很令人担心的问题，即悲观情绪暂时不会消散。

　　The weaker outlook in most countries stems from “investment weakness as adjustment to diminished expectations about medium-term growth continues in many advanced and emerging market economies”, it says.IMF表示，大多数国家前景转弱的原因是，“随着许多发达经济体和新兴市场经济体的中期增长预期数字持续调低，投资趋于疲软”。

　　Having incorporated the 55 per cent decline in oil prices since September, a rise in the value of the dollar and these weaker medium-term prospects, the IMF believes the world economy will grow 3.5 per cent in 2015 and 3.7 per cent in 2016.综合考虑油价自去年9月以来下跌55%、美元升值以及上述更为疲弱的中期前景后，IMF认为，世界经济将在2015年增长3.5%，在2016年增长3.7%。

　　As well as China, there were big downgrades to the growth forecasts for Russia, Brazil, the Middle East and Africa.除了中国以外，IMF还大幅下调了对俄罗斯、巴西、中东和非洲的增长预测。

　　Russia is set for a deep recession, with a contraction of 3 per cent forecast this year and 1 per cent next, according to the fund. More than one percentage point has been sliced from Brazil’s forecast growth rate this year, with Latin America’s largest economy likely to expand only 0.3 per cent in 2015 and 1.5 per cent next year, the IMF believes.IMF表示，俄罗斯将陷入深度衰退，预计今明两年将分别收缩3%和1%。IMF将其对巴西今年增长的预测下调了逾1个百分点。该组织认为，拉美最大经济体在2015年很可能仅会增长0.3%，在2016年增长1.5%。

　　Compared with these large downgrades, the 0.2 and 0.3 percentage point cuts to the eurozone forecast for this year and next are relatively minor. They are based on the European Central Bank introducing quantitative easing later this week.与上述大幅下调相比，IMF将其对欧元区今明两年的增长预测分别下调0.2和0.3个百分点就显得微不足道。对欧元区的预测是建立在欧洲央行(ECB)本周晚些时候出台量化宽松的基础之上。

　　The cut to the forecast will, however, increase the concern expressed by the IMF in October that there was a 40 per cent chance of the single currency area slipping into its third recession since 2008.尽管如此，这一下调仍会让人们更加担心IMF去年10月提到的一件事——该组织当时认为，欧元区有40%的概率滑向2008年以来的第三次衰退。

　　The US and Spain enjoyed the largest uplift to their forecasts, with the US, the world’s most important economy, expected to expand 3.6 per cent in 2015 and 3.3 per cent in 2016.IMF对美国和西班牙增长预测的上调幅度最大，它预计美国这个全球最重要的经济体在2015年和2016年将分别增长3.6%和3.3%。

　　Forecasts for other large economies such as India and the UK, along with the eastern Europe region, were lt largely unaltered.IMF对印度和英国等其他大型经济体以及东欧地区的增长预测基本未作调整。

　　To improve the outlook, the IMF continued to recommend loose monetary policy and increased infrastructure investment, which it believes helps both increase medium-term growth and the more immediate recovery.为了改善经济增长前景，IMF再次建议放松货币政策和增加基础设施投资，它相信这两项举措既有助于提高中期增长、又有助于较近期的复苏。

　　The fund’s gloomy assessment chimed with an International Labour Organisation prediction, also published on Tuesday, that global unemployment will remain elevated until at least 2017 as the slight fall in joblessness in advanced economies is offset by an increase in developing countries — a reversal of the trend in recent years.IMF的悲观评估与国际劳工组织(International Labour Organisation)的预测相吻合。国际劳工组织在周二也发布预测称，至少在2017年前，全球失业率仍将高企，发达经济体失业率的微幅下降将被发展中经济体失业率的上升抵消——这相对近几年的趋势而言是一个逆转。

　　“The challenge of bringing unemployment and underemployment back to pre-crisis levels now appears as daunting a task as ever, with considerable societal and economic risks associated with this situation,” the ILO said in its World Employment and Social Outlook.国际劳工组织在其《世界就业和社会展望》(World Employment and Social Outlook)中表示：“眼下让失业率和不充分就业率回到危机前水平的难度似乎和以往一样大，而且当前这种局面伴随着巨大的社会和经济风险。”

　　The ILO forecast joblessness in the G20’s advanced economies would decline from 7.7 per cent to 7 per cent, propelled by improvements in the US, UK and some southern European countries. But joblessness in the G20’s emerging economies would increase from 5 per cent to 5.2 per cent, driven by increases in East Asia and Brazil, it said.国际劳工组织预计，受美国、英国和部分南欧国家就业改善的推动，20国集团(G20)中发达国家的失业率将从7.7%降至7%;但是，由于东亚和巴西失业率上升，G20中新兴经济体的失业率将从5%升至5.2%。