经济学：《美国绿了-美有可能带头应对气候变化》.

　　(1)A COUNTRY with a presidential system tends to get identified with its leader. So, for the rest of the world, America is George Bush's America right now. It is the country that has mismanaged the Iraq war; holds prisoners without trial at Guantánamo Bay; restricts funding for stem-cell research because of fundamentalist religious belis; and destroyed the chance of a global climate-change deal based on the Kyoto protocol.

　　人们往往认为，总统制国家就是其总统的国家。因此，在世界其他国家看来，现在的美国就是乔治?布什的美国。正是这样一个国家，对伊拉克战事处置失当，把战俘关押在关塔那摩海湾又不审讯，顾及原教旨主义分子的宗教信仰而限制对干细胞研究的资助;也正是这样一个国家，拒绝签署《京都议定书》有关的全球气候变化协议。

　　But to simplify thus is to misunderstand—especially in the case of huge, federal America. One of its great strengths is the diversity of its political, economic and cultural life. While the White House dug its heels in[1] on global warming, much of the rest of the country was moving. That's what forced the president's concession to greens in the state-of-the-union address on January 23rd. His poll ratings sinking under the weight of Iraq, Mr Bush is grasping for popular issues to keep him afloat[2]; and global warming has evidently become such an issue. (2)Albeit in the context of energy security, a now familiar concern of his, Mr Bush spoke for the first time to Congress of “the serious challenge of global climate change” and proposed measures designed, in part, to combat it.

　　不过，只见树木，不见森林，对于泱泱联邦大国美国而言尤为如此。美国的重要特点之一就在于其政治、经济和文化生活的多样性。当白宫在全球气候变暖问题上始终坚持拒绝有所作为时，该国其他许多人都行动了起来。这也迫使总统在1月23日的国情咨文中对环保人士作出让步。受伊战所累，布什的民意支持率一路下滑，他也希望抓住民众关心的问题来提升自己的支持率，而全球气候变暖显然就成了这样一个问题。当下布什最关心的是能源安全问题，但尽管如此，布什还是以能源安全为依托，(在国情咨文讲话中)首次对国会提及“全球气候变化带来的严峻挑战”，并建议制定相应的应对措施。

　　It's the weather, appropriately, that has turned public opinion—starting with Hurricane Katrina. (3)Scientists had been warning Americans for years that the risk of “extreme weather events” would probably increase as a result of climate change. But scientific papers do not drive messages home as convincingly as the destruction of a city. And the heatwave that torched America's west coast last year, accompanied by a constant drip of new research on melting glaciers and dying polar bears, has only strengthened the beli that something must be done.

　　让民意转向的恰好就是天气问题，而这又始于卡特里娜飓风。多年来科学家一直提醒美国人，随着气候的变化，发生“极端天气事件”的可能性增高，但是相比科学论文，天气事件毁坏一座城市的事实要更具有说服力。去年，酷热席卷了美国西海岸，同时关于冰川融化和北极熊面临死亡威胁的研究报告也是层出不穷，一切都使得有关方面进一步认识到必须有所举措了。

　　Business is changing its mind too. Five years ago corporate America was solidly against carbon controls. But the threat of a patchwork of state regulations, combined with the opportunity to profit from new technologies, began to shift business attitudes. (4)And that movement has gained momentum[3], because companies that saw their competitors espouse carbon controls began to fear that, once the government got down to designing regulations, they would be lt out of the discussion if they did not jump on the bandwagon. So now the loudest voices are not resisting change but arguing for it.

　　企业也在改变思路。5年前，美国企业坚决反对控制碳排放，但在州政府各项规定的约束之下，再加上新技术有利可图，企业纷纷开始转变态度。而且，这种势头越来越猛，因为企业眼见其竞争对手赞成控制碳排放，开始担心如若自己不“顺势而动”，那么一旦(联邦)政府考虑制定有关规定时，就不会采纳他们的意见。因此，如今企业叫得最凶的不是抵制而是支持改革。

　　Support for carbon controls has also grown among some unlikely groups: security hawks (who want to reduce America's dependence on Middle Eastern oil); farmers (who like subsidies for growing the raw material for ethanol); and evangelicals (who worry that man should be looking after the Earth God gave him a little better). This alliance has helped persuade politicians to move. Arnold Schwarzenegger, California's Republican governor, has led the advance, with muscular measures legislating Kyoto-style curbs in his state. His popularity has rebounded as a result. And now there is movement too at the federal level, which is where it really matters. Since the Democrats took control of Congress after the November mid-term elections, bills to tackle climate change have proliferated. And three of the serious candidates for the presidency in 2008—John McCain, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama—are all pushing for federal measures.

　　有些令人意想不到的团体也渐渐开始支持控制碳排放，比如能源安全鹰派成员(也就是希望减少美国对中东石油依赖的那些人)、农民(希望获得补贴用于种植提炼乙醇的原材料)和福音派人士(他们认为人类应当悉心呵护上帝所赐才会有好报)。这些人对说动政界人士也起到了推动作用。加州州长、共和党人阿诺德?施瓦辛格率先在本州采取了有力措施，按照《京都议定书》的有关要求，通过了强制性限排的立法，他也因此重拾威信。现在联邦政府一级也开始有所行动，而这才是真正重要的。自从11月中期选举后民主党主政国会以来，关于对付气候变化问题的提案越来越多。三名2008年总统候选人也都在力促联邦政府拿出举措，他们是约翰?麦凯恩、希拉里?克林顿和巴拉克?奥巴马。

　　(5)Unfortunately, Mr Bush's new-found interest in climate change is coupled with, and distorted by, his focus on energy security. Reducing America's petrol consumption by 20% by 2017, a target he announced in the state-of-the-union address, would certainly diminish the country's dependence on Middle Eastern oil, but the way he plans to go about it may not be either ficient or clean. Increasing fuel-economy standards for cars and trucks will go part of the way, but for most of the switch America will have to rely on a greater use of alternative fuels. That means ethanol (inficient because of heavy subsidies and high tariffs on imports of foreign ethanol) or liquied coal (filthy because of high carbon emissions).

　　不幸的是，布什最近对气候变化的关注，是同他对能源安全的关注扯在一起的，人们因此也怀疑他醉翁之意不在酒。他在国情咨文中宣布要在2017年以前将美国的油耗减少20%。这一目标无疑会让美国对中东石油的依赖性减低，但是他计划实现这一目标的方式却与提高能效或者环保无关。虽然这中间涵盖了提高汽车节油标准在内，但大部分还是依赖更多的采用其他形式的燃料，也就是乙醇或者液态煤。前者由于补贴大、进口关税高因而能效并不高，后者则由于碳排放量高所以容易造成环境污染。

　　The measure of Mr Bush's failure to tackle this issue seriously is his continued rejection of the only two clean and ficient solutions to climate change. One is a carbon tax, which this paper has long advocated. The second is a cap-and-trade system of the sort Europe introduced to meet the Kyoto targets. It would limit companies' emissions while allowing them to buy and sell permits to pollute. Either system should, by setting a price on carbon, discourage its emission; and, in doing so, encourage the development and use of cleaner-energy technologies. (6)Just as America's adoption of catalytic converters led eventually to the world's conversion to lead-free petrol, so its drive to clean-energy technologies will ensure that these too spread.

　　布什并没有认真对待这一问题。之所以这么说，是因为他仍拒绝采用解决气候变化问题仅有的两种既高效又清洁的方法。一个是征收碳排放税，这也是《经济学人》杂志长期以来所提倡的。另一个则是欧洲为达到《京都议定书》要求所实行的“配额-贸易”制度。该制度一方面限制企业排污，同时也允许其买卖排污许可证。该制度通过对碳排放进行定价(实际上就是要收费)，因而应当会减少排放，并且可以促进企业开发利用清洁能源技术。正如美国当年采用催化式排气净化器最终引导了世界应用无铅汽油的潮流一样，美国努力开发的清洁能源技术也肯定能得到推广。

　　A tax is unlikely because of America's aversion to that three-letter word. Given that, it should go for a tough cap-and-trade system. In doing so, it can usully learn from Europe's experience. First, get good data. Europe failed to do so: companies were given too many permits, and emissions have therore not fallen. Second, auction permits (which are, in fect, money) rather than giving them away free. Europe gave them away, which allowed polluters to make windfall[4] profits. This will be a huge fight; for, if the federal government did what the Europeans did, it would hand out $40 billion-50 billion in permits. Third, set a long time-horizon. Europeans do not know whether carbon emissions will still be constrained after 2012, when Kyoto runs out. Since most clean-energy projects have a payback period of more than five years, the system thus fails to encourage green investment.

　　美国人对“税”这个字一向反感，因此征收碳排放税是不可能的。既然如此，那么美国就只能采取严格的“配额-贸易”制度。为此美国可以借鉴欧洲有益的经验。首先，要确定适当的配额数量。欧洲就没能做到：配额发放过多，排放量因此并未减少。其次，对配额进行定价而不是免费发放，企业需要配额就必须花钱购买。欧洲无偿发放配额，结果却让排污企业赚得盆满钵满。对配额定价将带来巨大收益，而如果联邦政府效仿欧洲的做法，就等于将配额中所蕴含的400~500亿美元拱手送人。第三，要设定一个较长的有效时间范围。欧洲不清楚2012年《京都议定书》到期后是否仍需限制碳排放。既然大多数清洁能源项目的效益回报期都在5年以上，那么“配额-贸易”制度并不能鼓励环保投资。

　　One of America's most admirable characteristics is its beli that it has a duty of moral leadership. At present, however, it's not doing too well on that score. Global warming could change that. (7)By tackling the issue now it could regain the high moral ground (at the same time as forging ahead in the clean-energy business, which Europe might otherwise dominate). And it looks as though it will; for even if the Toxic Texan continues to evade the issue, his successor will grasp it.

　　美国最难能可贵的一个特征在于，它坚信自己有责任成为道义领袖。不过就目前来看，在这一点上它的表现并不好，而全球变暖问题有可能令其有所改变。把眼下这个问题解决好了，美国就能重新树立自己的道义形象(与此同时，还能在清洁能源业中迎头赶上，避免欧洲占去先机)。现在看来似乎在未来它也能做到这一点，因为即便“有毒的得克萨斯人”(暗指布什是全球最大的污染制造者)继续回避这个问题，他的继任者也会抓住这一机会。