FT社评：全球经济今年面临诸多风险.

　　What lies ahead for the world economy in 2016? The good news is that it is almost certain to grow. Only a huge adverse shock — another global financial crisis or a war among great powers — would stop growth altogether. According to Consensus Forecasts, global growth is expected to be 2.8 per cent in 2016, up from 2.6 per cent in 2015. This forecast looks quite tolerable. But it hides important economic divergences and downside risks.

　　2016年全球经济前景如何?好消息是，几乎可以肯定全球经济将实现增长。只不过，如果发生巨大的负面冲击——爆发另一场全球金融危机或大国之间的战争——可能会使全球经济完全停止增长。根据共识预测(Consensus Forecasts)，2016年全球经济预计增长2.8%，较2015年的2.6%有所上升。该预测看起来相当不错。但是它掩盖了重要的经济差异以及下滑风险。

　　Virtually all high-income economies have returned to growth. The eurozone economy is forecast to grow 1.7 per cent in 2016, up from 1.5 per cent in 2015. The UK economy is forecast to grow by 2.3 per cent and the US economy by 2.5 per cent. Japan’s is forecast to grow 1.2 per cent in 2016, up from 0.6 per cent.差不多所有的高收入经济体都已经恢复增长。2016年欧元区经济预计将增长1.7%，较2015年的1.5%有所提高。英国经济预计将增长2.3%，同时美国经济预计将增长2.5%。2016年日本预计增长1.2%，高于2015年的0.6%。

　　Asia (excluding Japan) is forecast to lead the world economy, once again, with growth of 5.7 per cent. India’s is expected to be the fastest-growing large economy in the world, with growth of 7.8 per cent in 2016, against 6.5 per cent in China. But Brazil and Russia are in recession: the former’s growth is forecast at minus 2.2 per cent in 2016, after minus 3.5 per cent in 2015. Russia’s growth is forecast at minus 0.2 per cent, against minus 3.8 per cent in 2015.亚洲(除日本外)有望再次领跑全球经济，预计增长率为5.7%。印度有望成为全球增长最快的大型经济体，预计2016年增长率为7.8%，而中国的预期增长率为6.5%。但是，巴西和俄罗斯正陷于衰退之中：2016年前者的增长率预计为-2.2%，延续其2015年-3.5%的衰退趋势;俄罗斯增长率预计为-0.2%，而其2015年增长率为-3.8%。

　　The end of the commodity boom, especially the collapse in the price of oil, has created complex risks. The fall in commodity prices is bound to turn some of the debt of commodity-producing companies increasingly bad. It has also lowered government revenue and so increased fiscal dicits in commodity-dependent economies. At the same time, the fall in commodity prices raises the real incomes of consumers. This should boost their consumption. At the country level, Australia, Canada, Russia, Brazil and South Africa are important losers, while the eurozone, Japan, China and India are winners.大宗商品繁荣期结束、特别是油价暴跌，给全球经济带来了多重风险。大宗商品价格下滑必然使大宗商品生产商的部分债务问题日益恶化。它还使得依赖于大宗商品的经济体的政府收入下滑，并因此导致其财政赤字扩大。同时，大宗商品价格下滑使得消费者的实际收入增加，这应会促进其消费。在国家层面上，澳大利亚、加拿大、俄罗斯、巴西和南非是主要的输家，而欧元区、日本、中国和印度则是赢家。

　　Macroeconomic divergences have also opened among high-income economies. The Federal Reserve started a tightening cycle in monetary policy, with a rise in interest rates in December 2015. The Bank of England might follow suit in 2016. Meanwhile the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are still aggressively loosening.在宏观经济方面，高收入经济体之间也出现了差异。2015年12月美联储(Fed)宣布加息，开启货币政策收紧周期。2016年，英国央行(The Bank of England)或许将效仿此举。与此同时，欧洲央行(ECB)以及日本央行(Bank of Japan)仍将积极地放松货币政策。

　　The beginning of the US tightening cycle is likely to keep the dollar strong. The combination of falling commodity prices and a strong dollar with higher US interest rates will add to the stresses on many borrowers, particularly on those whose borrowings are mainly denominated in the US currency.美国进入银根收紧周期很可能使美元保持强劲。大宗商品价格下滑、美元走强、再加上美国利率升高，将加大很多借款人的压力，特别是那些债务主要以美元计价的借款人。

　　Along with these divergences are at least four significant uncertainties. The first is whether the Fed’s decision to begin tightening turns out to be a wise one or an error so serious that it must be reversed. A second is whether the stresses within the eurozone, in particular weak demand and high unemployment, trigger a new round of crises. The third and most important is whether the Chinese government manages the challenges of rorming its unusually investment- and credit-dependent economy, while avoiding a destabilising depreciation of the renminbi. The last is whether difficulties in commodity-dependent economies trigger a new wave of financial crises.除这些差异外，至少还有4个重要的不确定因素。第一点，美联储收紧货币政策的决定，到底是明智的选择，还是必须被逆转的严重错误。第二点，欧元区的内部压力——特别是需求低迷和失业率居高不下——是否会触发新一轮危机。第三点也是最重要的一点，中国政府能否战胜挑战，改革其异常依赖于投资和信贷的经济模式，同时避免人民币出现破坏稳定的贬值。最后一点，依赖于大宗商品的经济体面临的困难是否会触发新一轮金融危机。

　　In addition to largely economic uncertainties lie geopolitical risks. Populist politics are on the rise. Vladimir Putin’s Russia and Xi Jinping’s China are inclined towards belligerence. Parts of the Middle East are in chaos.除了主要的经济不确定性以外，全球经济还面临着地缘政治的风险。民粹主义政治抬头。弗拉基米尔?普京(Vladimir Putin)领导的俄罗斯和习近平治下的中国表现出军事强硬的倾向。中东部分地区处于混乱之中。

　　Managing these various risks will demand patience and wisdom — qualities not in great supply. Nevertheless, the world economy will probably stay on the rails, as it did in 2015. Another year of continued, albeit so-so, growth is the likely outcome. It could be even better. But it is more likely to be worse.处理以上各种风险，需要耐心和智慧——而这些品质在当下并不多见。话虽如此，全球经济有很大可能将保持在正轨上，就像2015年一样。全球很可能又将迎来虽然表现平平、但继续增长的一年。情况甚至有可能更好。但是情况更糟的可能性更大。