全球遭遇最热夏天：节能减排成废纸？.

　　OSLO — The Earth is so hot this year that a limit for global warming agreed by world leaders at a climate summit in Paris just a few months ago is in danger of being breached.

　　奥斯陆报道——今年全球是如此之热，以至于数月之前由几个国家的领导人签署的巴黎气候峰会协议几乎快要成为一纸空文。

　　In December, almost 200 nations agreed a radical shift away from fossil fuels with a goal of limiting a rise in average global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times while "pursuing forts" for 1.5C (2.7F).

　　去年12月份，近200个国家同意大幅削减化石燃料的使用，目标是把全球温度的上升幅度控制在2摄氏度(3.6华氏度)以内，通过努力使温度比前工业化时代只高出1.5摄氏度(2.7华氏度)。

　　But 2016 is on track to be the hottest year on record, also buoyed by a natural El Nino event warming the Pacific, according to the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization. The first six months were a sweltering 1.3C above pre-industrial times.

　　但是根据联合国世界气象组织的报告，有了太平洋厄尔尼诺现象的火上浇油，2016年却是有记录以来最热的一年。前六个月已经比前工业化时代高出了1.3摄氏度。

　　"It opens a Pandora’s box," said Oliver Geden, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "The future debate about temperature targets will be about overshoot."

　　“这就像打开了潘多拉的盒子。” 德国国际与安全事务研究所的奥利弗·戈登说，“未来对温度目标的讨论将会集中在温度超标上。”

　　Many climate scientists say the Paris targets are likely to be breached in the coming decades, shifting debate onto whether it will be possible to turn down the global thermostat.

　　很多气候专家说巴黎峰会定下的目标在几十年内就会沦为一纸空文，讨论的重点将从“是否可行”转移到“降低全球温度”。

　　Climate scientists will meet in Geneva from Aug 15-18 to plan a U.N. report about the 1.5C goal, requested by world leaders in the Paris Agreement for publication in 2018.

　　气候专家们将于8月15日到18日在日内瓦召开会议，探讨联合国层面对“1.5摄氏度”目标的报告，各国领导人在巴黎协议中称将在2018年达成这个目标。

　　Overshoot is among the issues in preparatory documents.

　　温度超标在预备文件中是普遍的问题。

　　Developing nations see overshoot as a betrayal of commitments by the rich and a recipe to worsen heatwaves such as in the Middle East this year or a thaw of Greenland’s ice sheet that could swamp island states by raising global sea levels.

　　发展中国家认为温度超标是富有国家对协议条款的背叛，造成了中东地区的今年的热浪，以及格陵兰岛冰盖的融化，导致岛国海平面上升，有被淹没的风险。

　　"There is a risk that ’overshoot’ is a slippery slope towards lower ambition," said Emmanuel de Guzman, secretary of the Climate Commission of the Philippines, which chairs a group of 43 emerging nations in the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF).

　　“‘温度超标’对小国家来说有急转直下的风险。”领导着易受气候影响脆弱国家论坛(CVF)43个成员国的菲律宾气候委员会秘书长伊曼纽尔·德·古兹曼说。

　　Backing that view at the Rio Olympics, some athletes have signs saying: "1.5 — the record we must not break" in a campaign partly run by the CVF, whose members includes Bangladesh, the Maldives and Guatemala.

　　看向里约奥运会，在CVF组织的活动中，一些运动员举着“1.5摄氏度——这是我们不能打破的纪录”的标语，他们来自孟加拉国、马尔代夫和危地马拉。

　　Developing nations say overshoot lets world leaders pay lip service to 1.5C while failing to act on pledges made in Paris for a trillion-dollar shift from coal and other fossil fuels towards renewable energies.

　　发展中国家说，温度超标使得各国领导人在巴黎峰会承诺的——把温度上升控制在1.5摄氏度、花费大量资金把化石燃料换成可再生能源——成了空头支票。

　　U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump doubts climate change is caused by human activities and has said he will pull out of the Paris Agreement if elected. Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton strongly backs Paris.

　　美国共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普不认为气候变化是由人类活动造成的，称如果当选就会退出巴黎协议。而民主党候选人希拉里·克林顿强烈支持巴黎协议。

　　The 1.5C threshold could be in jeopardy within five years on current trends of world greenhouse gas emissions, led by China and the United States, and 2C within about 25 years, according to U.N. calculations of the amount of carbon that can be emitted into the atmosphere. Brazilian scientist Thelma Krug, who will lead the Geneva meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said a "wholesale transformation" of economies and society will be required to achieve the Paris targets.

　　根据联合国测算的二氧化碳排放量，按照现在温室气体的排放趋势(以中国和美国为主)，1.5摄氏度的目标很有可能在五年内化为泡影，2摄氏度的目标也将在25年内破产。在日内瓦主持政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)会议的巴西科学家席尔玛·克鲁格说，要想达成巴黎协议定下的目标，经济和社会必须要有“大规模改革”。

　　The IPCC report will look at both the damage to nature from a 1.5C rise and ways to rein in rising temperatures.

　　该会议将讨论气温上升1.5摄氏度对大自然的损害以及遏制气温上升的方法。

　　Many IPCC scenarios in recent years discuss ways to extract heat-trapping carbon dioxide from nature. If applied at a wide enough scale, such "negative emissions" could reduce temperatures after an overshoot. But there are many pitfalls.

　　近几年，很多IPCC的提案都讨论了从大自然中抽取导致温室效应的气体——二氧化碳的方法。如果范围足够宽的话，这种“反向排放”能够在温度超标以后降低温度。但是这也有很多隐患。

　　The simplest natural aid - planting trees that absorb carbon dioxide from the air to grow - would probably require too much farmland to be feasible. Industrial technologies for extracting carbon from the air are costly and in their infancy.

　　最简单的方法——种树，能够吸收空气中的二氧化碳，但是这种办法要占用很多的耕地。从空气中提取二氧化碳的工业技术尚在起步阶段，而且成本很高。

　　Draft documents for the 2018 report by the IPCC also mention more radical solutions, such as spraying chemicals into the upper atmosphere to dim sunlight through "geo-engineering."

　　IPCC关于2018年目标的草案文件提到了一些激进的解决方案，比如利用地球工程学的方法往高空大气层里喷洒化学品来降低太阳直射。

　　"It’s hard to avoid overshoot. It’s more a question of the size," said Glen Peters, a scientist at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo.

　　“让温度不超标实在是太难了。这更像是一个规模上的问题。” 奥斯陆国际气候与环境研究中心研究员格伦·彼得斯说。

　　The Paris text is vague about the temperature ceilings and does not say whether 1.5C or 2C rers to temperatures in one year, over a decade or longer.

　　巴黎协议的文件对温度上升上限的规定很模糊，没有说1.5还是2摄氏度，也没有说时限是一年、十年还是更长。