里约奥运英国金牌为什么超越中国？.

　　Team GB has been second in the Olympic medal table for nearly a week， pushing China into third place - the same China that topped the medal table at the Beijing Olympics in 2008， and was second in 2004 and 2012。 So is GB doing well - or is China doing badly?

　　一周来，英国队在里约奥运的金牌榜上都占据第二，中国队名列第三——而2008年，北京在奥运奖牌榜排名第一，2004年和2012年都排名第二。那么，是英国队本次表现太出色，还是中国队自身表现不佳呢?

　　Much has been made of Team GB’s success so far in Rio。 But it’s possible that China has done even more to propel the British up the table。

　　迄今为止，英国队在里约奥运上的表现都非常出色，但也有可能是中国将英国推到了第二名的高位。

　　Prior to the Games， some had predicted that China could win up to 36 gold medals。 Instead， at noon on Friday， with just three days to go， they were sitting on just 20 - two behind Team GB - despite having sent 416 athletes to Rio， compared with Team GB’s 366。

　　赛前预测普遍认为中国队最多能获得36枚金牌。然而，直到8月19日中午12点——距离本届奥运结束还有3天时间时，中国队仅获得了20枚金牌——落后英国2枚。尽管中国队派出了416名运动健儿出战里约，而英国代表队只有366人。

　　So what has gone wrong?

　　那到底是发生了什么事呢，才会出现这样的结果?

　　At the 2012 London games， China won 11 golds across swimming， gymnastics and fencing。 This year they’ve managed only one。

　　四年前伦敦奥运时，中国队在游泳、体操、击剑项目中斩获了11枚金牌，然而本次里约奥运会这个数字仅为1。

　　Swimming has been a source of particular disappointment， given that just one year ago China won five gold medals at the world championships。

　　游泳队的表现尤其让人大跌眼镜，尽管一年前的世锦赛，中国还赢得了5枚金牌。

　　In gymnastics， China has been lt without a gold for the first time since the nation began competing at the Olympics in 1984。 In London four years ago they won five gymnastic golds， and in Beijing they won nine。

　　而体操项目，中国队没有收获金牌，这是中国自从1984年恢复参加奥运会以来第一次。4年前伦敦奥运会上中国体操队收获5枚金牌，2008年北京奥运会这个数字是9。

　　It goes on。 China’s badminton women’s doubles pair exited without a gold for the first time since the event was introduced in 1992。 And China could only muster bronze in mixed doubles， despite having taken three of the five golds available between 1992 and 2012。

　　情况似乎还更糟——作为中国羽毛球队的王牌项目，自1992年奥运起便连续5届包揽冠军的女双，在里约奥运上却首次创下了无缘奖牌的尴尬记录。羽毛球的女单、女双、混双，中国只在混双取得一枚铜牌。混而此前1992到2012年5届奥运中，中国曾经取得这一项目女单、女双、混双的3块金牌。　　

　　2000年东道国澳大利亚和2008年东道国中国金牌数变化图(蓝线代表中国，红线代表澳大利亚)。

　　That said， it’s not unusual for teams to do much better than normal when they are the host nation and then tail off at subsequent games。

　　有种说法是，奥运会东道国会在自己主办那届奥运会上有超常表现，但随后开始下跌。

　　“We often see the performance afterwards declines a bit，” says Carsten Crede of the University of East Anglia。 “You have an increased incentive as a country to invest in your athletes prior to hosting the games， so after that the incentive is gone。”

　　“我们通常会看到这种东道国在后来的奥运会上表现下滑的情况，”东安格利亚大学的克雷德说，“主办奥运会能刺激东道国在那届奥运会之前对运动项目增加投资，但这种激情后来会消退。”

　　In China’s case， the surge in gold medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics， and the drop-off at the following games appears to be much sharper than Australia’s rise and fall bore and after the Sydney games in 2000。

　　以中国为例，2008年北京奥运上中国金牌数量达到最高峰，随后出现下跌，其涨跌程度都超过了2000年主办奥运会的澳大利亚。

　　Crede and his colleagues had predicted a total of 86 medals (including silvers and bronzes) for China。 So far it has won just 58。

　　克雷德和他的同事预测中国会在里约拿到86块奖牌(包括银牌和铜牌)，但截至目前只有58枚。

　　By contrast， Team GB is only nine medals off its total of 65 from London 2012。

　　相比之下，英国目前已夺得61枚，只比伦敦奥运会夺得的65枚奖牌总数少4枚。

　　There’s been considerable disquiet in the Chinese media about the national team’s performance in Rio。 “You’re kidding me?” wrote state news agency Xinhua of Team GB in a subsequently deleted tweet。 “The country which has never finished above China， is about to。”

　　中国队的表现引发了中国媒体的惊讶。“这不是开玩笑吧!一个从来没有在奖牌榜上超过中国的国家，现在就要做到了。”官方媒体《新华社》在一条现在已被删除的推特上感叹。

　　Of the Chinese gymnasts， who took home just two bronzes， the official People’s Daily said： “People cannot but ponder - what on earth is up with them?”

　　对于仅获得1银、4枚铜牌的体操，官媒《人民日报》说，“人们只能沉思，他们到底怎么了?”

　　But China’s decline may be a portent of Team GB’s future。 “I think we will see a fading out over time， just as we might see with China at the moment，” Crede says。 He says it’s too early to assess whether China truly has underperformed at Rio relative to how you would expect a team to fare two games after being hosts。

　　不过，中国队的今天很可能就是英国队的明天。克雷德说，“随着时间推移，我们会看到英国奥运热退潮，就像中国现在这样。”不过他说，现在评估中国在里约表现不佳是否真的和所预测的那样，是因为在东道国后连续两届成绩下滑，还为时过早。

　　What about the Tokyo games in four years’ time? Given China’s strong rivalry with Japan， it’s possible Beijing will pull out all the stops to perform well。 Will Team GB already be on the familiar downward curve?

　　四年后的东京会怎么样呢?考虑到中日关系的因素，北京方面可能会想方设法争取好的表现。但英国真的会是奥运热退潮，成绩下滑吗?