50年后的历史试卷你能想象出来会有什么题吗？.

　　Journalism is sometimes said to be the first draft of history. This article is the first draft of a history exam for students graduating in 2066. I have tried to imagine the questions future historians will ask about today’s political events.

　　新闻有时被称为历史的初稿。本文是为2066年毕业的学生准备的历史试卷初稿。我试着设想了未来历史学家可能对当今的政治事件提出的一些问题。

　　To make the exercise more interesting, readers are invited to answer any of the questions below, from any section of the paper, and to send answers to essayquestion@ft.com. The three most interesting essays will be published online in the Financial Times. Answers should be received by September 20.

　　为了让练习更加有趣，我们邀请读者回答试卷中列出的任何问题，并将答案发送至essayquestion@ft.com。我们将挑选其中最有意思的三份答案刊登在英国《金融时报》的网站上。投稿时间截至9月20日。

　　Candidates will notice that while some questions can be answered on the basis of currently available knowledge, others may require a degree of speculation about the future. Where appropriate, authors are allowed to use their imagination and intuition to fill in some details about events yet to unfold.

　　答题者会注意到，有些问题可以在现有知识的基础上回答，而另外一些问题可能需要对未来进行一定程度的推测。在适当的情况下，作答者可以运用自己的想象力和直觉为尚未明晰的事件补充一些细节。

　　Answers should between 700 and 900 words. You have one hour.

　　答案字数要求700至900字。限时一小时。

　　Section A: The US

　　第一部分：美国

　　1. “The orderly management of decline.” Discuss this verdict on the foreign policy of President Barack Obama.

　　1. “对衰落的有序管理。”请就对美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马外交政策的这一评价进行论述。

　　2. A great social rormer or a great disappointment? Which is the fairer verdict on the presidency of Mr Obama?

　　2. 一位伟大的社会改革家，还是令人大失所望的总统?这两个对奥巴马总统任期的评价，哪一个更公正?

　　3. Why did the Bush and Clinton clans have such a grip on American politics between 1988 and 2020?

　　3. 为什么布什家族与克林顿家族在1988年至2020年间对美国政治有如此强大的控制力?

　　4. Donald Trump was not an accident but the logical culmination of long-term trends in politics and society. Discuss.

　　4. 唐纳德·特朗普的崛起并非偶然，而是政治、社会长期趋势的必然结果。请就这一说法进行论述。

　　Section B: Europe

　　第二部分：欧洲

　　1. Brexit was a symptom, but not a fundamental cause, of the decline of the EU. Discuss.

　　1. 欧盟衰落的根本原因不是英国脱欧，英国脱欧只是欧盟衰落的一个征兆。请就这一说法进行论述。

　　2. Why was the “European project” unable to provide the dinitive answer to the German question?

　　2. 为什么“欧洲计划”无法为德国问题提供明确的答案?

　　3. Why did the French become obsessed with their own decline in the early 21st century?

　　3. 为什么法国人在21世纪初沉湎于本国的衰落?

　　4. A worthy successor to Adenauer and Kohl: discuss this verdict on Angela Merkel.

　　4. 康拉德·阿登纳、赫尔穆特·科尔的称职接班人：请就对德国总理安格拉·默克尔的这一评价进行论述。

　　5. Why was the euro such a disaster for southern Europe?

　　5. 为什么说欧元对南欧是如此严重的一场灾难?

　　6. Was Vladimir Putin a good or a bad tsar for Russia?

　　6. 弗拉基米尔·普京是俄罗斯的好沙皇还是坏沙皇?

　　7. Why did Turkey turn its back on the legacy of Ataturk?

　　7. 为什么土耳其背弃了穆斯塔法·凯末尔·阿塔图尔克留下的政治遗产?

　　Section C: The Middle East

　　第三部分：中东地区

　　1. Why did the Arab spring happen and why did it fail?

　　1. 阿拉伯之春运动为什么会爆发，又为何失败了?

　　2. From 2011, the people of Syria were the victims of outside powers more than their own government. Discuss.

　　2. 自2011年以来，叙利亚人民的遭遇更多地应归咎于外部势力而非该国自己的政府。请就这一说法进行论述。

　　3. How much of a threat was post-revolutionary Iran to the Middle East and to the world order?

　　3. 后革命时代的伊朗对中东和世界秩序造成了多大程度上的威胁?

　　4. A Faustian bargain: discuss this verdict on the US-Saudi relationship bore and after 9/11.

　　4. 浮士德式的协议：请就这个对9/11之前及之后美国与沙特关系的评价进行论述。

　　5. Was the Israeli-Palestinian conflict at the core of the problems of the Middle East after 1989 or a distraction from the real issues?

　　5. 巴以冲突是1989年后中东问题的核心，还是分散了国际社会对真正问题的注意力?

　　Section D: Asia

　　第四部分：亚洲

　　1.Why did Asia’s great powers become obsessed with the possession of uninhabited islands and res during the early 21st century?

　　1.为什么21世纪初亚洲强国一心想要占有一些无人居住的岛屿和岛礁?

　　2.The maintenance of Communist party rule was essential to the development of China between 1978 and 2016. Discuss.

　　2.维持共产党的统治对中国在1978年至2016年间的发展至关重要。请就这一说法进行论述。

　　3.Why did China and eastern Europe take such different paths after 1989, and what were the consequences for the global order?

　　3.为什么1989年后中国和东欧走上了截然不同的道路，这对全球秩序的影响是什么?

　　4.Did Narendra Modi represent a new India?

　　4.纳伦德拉·莫迪代表了一个新的印度吗?

　　5.The most important fact in global politics from 1980 onwards was the growing economic power of Asia. Discuss.

　　5.全球政治自1980年以来最重要的现实是亚洲日益增长的经济实力。请就这一说法进行论述。

　　6.A brave but doomed venture: discuss this verdict on Abenomics.

　　6.一次勇敢但注定失败的冒险：请就对安倍经济学的这个评价进行论述。

　　7.Why did the world’s great powers allow North Korea to develop nuclear weapons?

　　7.为什么世界主要大国容许朝鲜开发核武器?

　　Section E: Africa and Latin America

　　第五部分：非洲和拉丁美洲

　　1. How “new” was the new South Africa?

　　1. 新南非有多“新”?

　　2. Why was Africa the first continent to become the subject of a contest for influence between China and the US?

　　2. 为什么非洲成为中美影响力较量的第一块大陆?

　　3. Oil was a curse not a blessing: discuss with rerence to either Nigeria or Angola in the early 21st century.

　　3. 石油是祸不是福：参考21世纪初的尼日利亚或安哥拉对此进行论述。

　　4. Why did Hugo Chávez become an icon for the global lt?

　　4. 为什么乌戈·查韦斯会成为全球左派的偶像?

　　5. “Brazil is the country of the future and it always will be.” Was this a fair verdict between 1950 and 2016?

　　5. “巴西是未来之国，而且将永远都是。”对于1950年至2016年间的巴西，这一评价恰当吗?

　　6. Was proximity to the US a blessing or a curse for Mexico from 1980 onwards? Discuss with rerence to other Latin American countries.

　　6. 地缘上临近美国对1980年后的墨西哥是福还是祸?参考其他拉美国家对此进行论述。

　　Section F: General

　　第六部分：一般问题

　　1. Why did the “end of history” only last for 20 years?

　　1. 为什么“历史的终结”只持续了20年?

　　2. Is neoliberalism a usul term for understanding the political economy of the early 21st century?

　　2. 新自由主义有助于理解21世纪初的政治经济吗?

　　3. Is neoconservatism a usul term for understanding US foreign policy in the early 21st century?

　　3. 新保守主义有助于理解21世纪初的美国外交政策吗?

　　4. Did globalisation lead to the creation of a global oligarchy?

　　4. 全球化导致了全球寡头政治的出现吗?

　　5. Why did globalisation not kill nationalism?

　　5. 为什么全球化无法扼杀民族主义?

　　6. Why was the rise of social media so disruptive to conventional politics?

　　6. 为什么社交媒体的崛起对传统政治拥有如此巨大的颠覆作用?

　　7. Did climate change demonstrate that a world of nation states and democratic politics was incapable of meeting the challenges of the 21st century?

　　7. 气候变化证明了由民族国家和民主政治构成的世界无法应对21世纪的挑战吗?

　　8. The International Criminal Court represented the high tide for the international legal system. Discuss.

　　8. 国际刑事法院代表了国际法律体系的高峰。请就这一说法进行论述。

　　9. Will a machine ever be able to answer these questions better than a human?

　　9. 机器人会有能比人类更好地回答这些问题的那一天吗?