GMAT作文点评与分析(十三).

　　在GMAT作文的备考过程中，考生需要在大量的练习中不断提升自己的逻辑思维能力和语言表达能力，并通过参照模板来改进GMAT作文的写作方式，以达到提高GMAT作文写作水平的目的。下面澳际留学就来为大家提供一些GMAT作文的点评以及范例。更多相关问题可咨询澳际留学在线专家，如果有任何意见和建议，也请联系我们。

13.(题库号31)The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and financial consulting firm:

　　“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age, from age 10 through age 60. Even after age 60, coffee consumption remains high. The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola, however, declines with increasing age. Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years. Given that the number

　　of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years, it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period. We should, therore, consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

　　Discuss how well reasoned . . . etc.

　　原文逻辑：

　　根据调查，咖啡的人均消耗量随着人年龄的增长而增加，而可乐的人均消耗量刚好相反，年龄增加消耗减少。由于接下来20年人口老龄化现象严重，所以咖啡肯定需求量大于可乐，于是我们应该把投资从可乐转移到咖啡上。

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　　逻辑漏洞:

　　1. 忽略了其他因素对于咖啡，可乐人均消耗的影响。虽然未来二十年老龄人口增加，但是专家预计未来咖啡豆丰收可能受天气影响结果大幅度减少，于是咖啡豆价格上调，所以很有可能人们会减少对咖啡的购买转而购买可乐。于是转移投资可能并不可取。

　　2. 没有明确说明studies的来源，可能这个studies调查的机构不专业，而且调查对象的范围比较窄，所以调查应该请专业的统计机构或者大学里面统计学院来参与调查，拿出具体的统计数据来说话，这样才能得出可靠的结论。

　　3. 研究中的这些人可能不具代表性，可能调查的人都是从事夜间工作的，需要喝咖啡提神，所以才导致咖啡消耗量出现调查中的结果。要想得出正确结论，还得重新选取调查对象才行。

　　Sample:

　　The business plan argued that they should transfer their investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee. The plan cited two reasons to support this suggestion. The first reason is that coffee consumption remains high from age 10 through age 60, instead, the cola consumption declines with increasing age. The second reason is that in the following 20 years, the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages increase. But in my opinion, the plan is flawed.

　　Firstly, the author failed to consider some important factors that can be influential to the demand of coffee and cola. For example, the expert predicts that a drought will attack the plantation planting the coco nuts and the drought is expected to last for 10 years. So of course the harvest of coco nuts will decline greatly and the price for these raw materials will increase in the global market as a result. Sooner or later, the cost for producing coffee will be prohibitive, so people who prer to drink coffee can not afford it any more. But there is no factor that can influence the cost of producing cola in the future. Absolutely most people will stop drinking coffee, some of them will also transfer their choice to cola. So it is not wise to transfer investment from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.

　　Secondly, the statistics the author cited in the plan is unwarranted. Because the author did not mention who actually made this research. It is possible that this research is done by some unprofessional institution without enough experience. Considering this possibility, we can conclude that it is weak to draw any specific conclusion from these unjustified statistics. If the author still wants to use these statistics to support his idea, then he should ask a formal research company such as NanChang survey institution for help. Only after the result is confirmed can this rerence be well-established.

　　The last but not the least, the aging people may be not representative of the whole population. Perhaps all these respondents are the people who especially prer to drink coffee rather than drink cola. And may be most of the subject have to drink coffee because they need to work until late night and coffee makes them feel excited. If they have any choice, they would like to buy cola instead of coffee. So it is imprudent to regard these people as the representation of the population and draw such conclusion.

　　To sum up, we can know that there are several fatal flaws in this argument. In order to correct this, the author should consider all factors that may be crucial for the plan and make the evidence he cited in more convincing.

　　甭管你挑的理对不对，你能自圆其说就行，别说着说着又去赞成原文了。而且每段只针对一个问题，批判的越清晰越好。我以前给人改AA，这位仁兄居然一段说了三个问题，最后总结时候都不知道说的是什么了，整个一摊大浆糊。咱这么聪明的中国人都看不明白，更别提糊涂的老美了。

　　此文还可以批判：分析师澳际帽了，难道赚钱就一定要从可乐转投咖啡吗?不能从生产可乐转到生产矿泉水?该地区水污染干旱严重，生产矿泉水饮用水准能大赚一笔，至少比可乐有澳际。

　　分析师澳际帽了，难道转到这个咖啡厂就一定赚钱?可能这个咖啡厂属于三无企业，卫生严重不达标，机器破，维修成本高，转到这家公司还不如安心做自己的可乐。

　相关链接：

1.GMAT作文点评与分析(十二)

2.GMAT作文模板汇总

3.GMAT考试作文机经 7月10日更新（二）