雅思阅读文章之经济Unemployment raise in UK.

　　这篇雅思阅读文章来自英国电讯报，主要内容是近期，英国失业人口的数字有所上升，这一现象被认为是英国失业现象进一步恶化。英国现在正在经历着劳动力市场的低谷期，现状比预期的要坏的多。下面是详细内容。

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　　The official line was the labour market is stabilising after a "difficult few months", with Work and Pensions Minister Chris Grayling pointing to a rise in vacancies.

　　Given the volume of monthly data released by the Office for National Statistics, some positives were inevitable.

　　But the message from economists – as well as the headline figures which shape the public&aposs mood – was gloomy.

　　"Unemployment is up and employment is down," summarised Graeme Leach, chi economist at the Institute of Directors. "This really is the feel-bad recovery."

　　The fear is that the situation could turn out to be a jobless recovery, seen when growth returns but employment does not keep pace.

　　What Britain is experiencing now is the downside of the labour market holding up relatively better than expected during the depths of the recession. Then, employers tended to cut hours rather than jobs.

　　With the UK back in growth mode – albeit fragile – businesses are upping the hours of existing staff and are wary of new hires.

　　Since the monthly figures can jump about, Simon Kirby at National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) crunched the rolling three-month averages to confirm the underlying picture.

　　Total employment peaked around 29.5m in April 2008, he said, when the UK had entered the recession but jobs cuts were yet to hit.

　　The latest data indicates the UK is now some 426,000 roles off that level, he said. But that figure hides the reality of Britain&aposs changing jobs market.

　　The number of full-time jobs is 864,000 below its peak, according to his calculations, since the net job creation has been overwhelmingly confined to part-time roles.

　　People are not embracing the reduced hours by choice - 1.2m are working part-time because they could not find full-time jobs, the highest total since records began in 1992, the December data showed.

　　Looking ahead, analysts think the employment situation will cut worse bore it improves, as government cutbacks hit the public sector and slow wider economic growth.

　　NIESR expects unemployment to climb from the current 2.5m mark to 2.8m.

　　Analysts at Capital Economics are gloomier, arguing that the "jobs recovery has gone into reverse" and expecting unemployment to hit 3m in the next few years.

　　Some fear we may just have to get used to unemployment running higher, if the recession lt a permanent scar on the UK&aposs economic capacity.

　　December&aposs headline unemployment figure was 7.9pc. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, the Government&aposs independent forecaster, this should peak at 8pc this year bore dropping to a longer-term average.

　　However, Mike Dicks, chi economist at Barclays Wealth, recently warned that the "structural" or underlying level of unemployment has gone up and that unemployment may stick at 8pc as companies get used to fewer staff and slacker growth.

　　The biggest losers are already emerging - the young, who face a youth unemployment rate of over 20pc, and those in the regions more reliant on the public sector work.

　　If anyone could said to be winner, it may turn out to be the Bank of England. The failure of pay deals to keep up with inflation is seen as lessening the pressure on the Bank to raise interest rates.

　　Total earnings, including bonuses, grew just 1.8pc in the three months to December compared to a year earlier, with the average weekly paycheck standing at �456.

　　When the paltry earnings growth is seen against the backdrop of over-target inflation, now at 4pc, the real-term pay cut is clear. And those in work are the lucky ones.

　　With the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development warning we now risk "job-loss recovery", never mind a jobless one, the pressure is on for next month&aposs Budget to offer a convincing blueprint for growth and employment.